Yeah, it’s off season and few things happen, unless you think that Celtics signing Scott Pollard is breaking news.

So before leaving for vacation (in the picture, Ricky engaged in the main activity he will do for the next three weeks) I thought it could be interesting to take a look at our roster NOW and try to imagine how the 2007-2008 Sixers might look like.

My take is that we have two STARTING spots to cover, small forward and power forward, assuming that Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert are almost a lock to start at PG, SG* and C.

[*= Yes, I consider Iguodala more a SG than a SF ("a shooting guard that can't shoot", according to a poster of the Sixers board, which is pretty funny but not accurate), if you don't it's ok, but find me a nicer headline for this post, then.]

So here is my breakdown, split into “hopes” and “realistic thoughts”.

The overall introduction is that Sixers clearly have a log jam at the 2-3 positions, with seven players (Iguodala, Willie Green, Kyle Korver, Rodney Carney, Thaddeus Young and even rookie Derrick Byars – and I am not considering Bobby Jones) to split minutes at SG and SF.

SMALL FORWARD

Whether you consider Iggy a SG or a SF, it doesn’t change the fact that he will play his usual 36-38 minutes per game (last year it was more than 40… what about cutting them a little bit, Mo ??) : that leaves six players to fight for the remaining 55-60 minutes (!).

Of these six players one, Kyle Korver, is perhaps the finest three point shooter in the NBA, for sure the best free throw shooter, one of the best 6th men, constantly improving, a fans -  not to mention Sixers4guidos – favourite. Last year he played 31 minutes per game and I honestly cannot see a good reason to reduce his minutes next year.

So it’s 38 Iguodala + 30 Korver = 68 minutes for those two = 28 minutes to divide between Green, Carney, Thaddeus Young (+ Byars) !!!

See a locker room storm coming ?? Some personnel management issues ??? Personally this scares me, also considering who is our coach (in case you don’t know, I am NOT a Cheeks fan). And this because – and I am going on with my analysis:

a) Rodney Carney is a guy we spent a 1st pick on only twelve months ago, and a player worth taking a deeper look at. To me he’s the typical case of guy who would probably blossom if traded to another team (= Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen, Matt Barnes etc part II)… a very good Summer League showed what I was simply feeling: this kid can play. I hope we keep him and give him the chance(s) that last year didn’t have.

b) Thaddeus Young is our rookie. A 12th pick in one of the deepest drafts ever, the 19 y/o wonder, the next Tayshaun Prince, the next Lamar Odom, the cornerstone for the Sixers future bla bla bla (add more Sixers propaganda here…)… would it be smart to leave his young ass on the bench in a season when Sixers will have basically NOTHING to play for and no other goal than “developing young players” ??? No, right?

c) Willie Green, as much as I dislike him, proved he’s a decent scorer off the bench, and a player that many teams looking for instant offense could use properly (just throwing out some random names: Cleveland, Miami, New Jersey etc). 11 PPG in 25 minutes is not bad, mostly considering his resume (a second round pick) and the bad injuries he had to pass through. This means he earned his minutes and will expect to play more. (Yes, I am showing some respect for the Detroit Mercy product. Finally ?).

d) Derrick Byars is… well, I honestly have no idea. I just hope he takes Green’s spot.

You see, a lot of open questions here. To sum it up:

SIXERS4GUIDOS HOPE:

Carney starts at SF, with Thad Young growing fastly as months pass and stealing him the starting spot, after Green gets traded.

Byars becomes the next Willie Green - minus the hate by Sixers bloggers.

REALISTIC PREDICTION: 

This is pretty tough.

Cheeks might actually continue mismanaging Carney, going with Young immediately. Green has probably (and sadly) a shot of starting at SG, with Iguodala playing some SF-point forward.

If Mo doesn’t give up on the “small ball” bullshit, Young plays even some PF (shaking my head).

POWER FORWARD

This is way easier: Sixers have currently four players to fight for this spot: Steven Hunter, Jason Smith, Shavlik Randolph, Herbert Hill (I am PURPOSELY forgetting bum Louis Amundson).

Ok, if we wanto to be accurate, and I do want it, Steven Hunter is actually a center, having no PF skills at all. Last last year he had to start because we simply run out of big men, but in ‘normal’ days he’s always been and always will be a BACK UP center. Pairing him with Dalembert would assure the Sixers another dubious record: the worst rebounding seven footers combo in the history of the NBA.

Jason Smith seems to be a very nice player, perhaps even a steal. He’s the only real power forward in that mix, and he looks like the best fit for the position. The question is: is the Colorado State rookie ready to start at the upper level ? None of us knows it.

The main problem with Shavlik Randolph is that he will come off a surgery. Another problem is that he wasn’t that good even before, when 100% healthy. Is he a PF? or a C? I honestly don’t care much. Love the guy, love his hustle, love the attitude, wish him all the best etc. etc. but you won’t go too far in the NBA if one of your big men is Shavlik Randolph. Don’t kidd ourselves fellas. 

Similar things could be said about Herbert Hill. I watched four Summer League games and he looked ok. Good hands, soft touch, size, rebounding, high %. The problem is: will he make the team? We are talking about a 55th pick. No disrespect, just being realistic. If he becomes the next Ben Wallace, I will be happy for having missed another prediction.

SIXERS4GUIDOS HOPE:

Jason Smith starts and slowly shows he’s an NBA player, making many draft “experts” and skeptic/negative Sixers fans eat their words/shut up.

Hunter goes back to what his role should be (Dalembert’s back up), Shavlik Randolph crosses the Atlantic Ocean and becomes MVP of the Italian League, where he wins the title and starts a long, healthy, wealthy career.

REALISTIC PREDICTION:

Cheeks goes the old way and starts Hunter. After being outrebounded in 48 out of the first 50 games, and by an average of 15 boards per game, he realizes that the team has rebounding issues and tries with Smith.

To make a long (too long, sorry) story short this would be my Sixers 2007-2008 starting line up:

PG Andre Miller – SG Andre Iguodala – SF Rodney Carney – PF Jason Smith – C Sam Dalembert

Before you start dissing me and these five guys, I will tell you that I am aware that this is a 31-33 W line up. But I don’t care FOR THIS SEASON, as long as Celtics and Lakers don’t win the ring.

We’ll see who will be better in 2-3 years. Tell me your thoughts, I will be back around the 28th August. 

… that I have always liked and pushed for, maybe it’s the fact that they are all smiling, and their smiles look for real… but the fact is that I am starting to like the Sixers 2007 draft picks more and more.

Actually, if we talk seriously, some other things made me slowly change my opinion, and starting to see some light. The draft initially left me scratching my head, like Rando Freeman wrote in his Sixers journal but then I took a deep breathe, stopped for a while and realized that:

1) many knowledgeable journalists, fans, posters in the Sixers board and fellow bloggers I trust (see also Jon from Passion & Pride, Brian of Depressed fan) like the picks, and explained very well in their breakdowns that this might turn out to be a very good draft for the Sixers. Even if we couldn’t get the top PF that we need(ed?) and that I’ve been asking for? Yes.

2) to BK credit, he didn’t make a Ainge-ish kind of move, like trading the #5 pick in one of the best drafts in recent years to get a 32 y/o injury prone All star, and this only to please the other complaining 30 y/o injury prone All star… It’s true King didn’t manage to trade up and that the “We have three offers on the table” was another BS of his, but at least he drafted on potential and didn’t go for the quick fix, mortgaging our future.

3) at the end of the day, I am always an optimistic guy so to me the glass is always half full… not your typical Sixers fan, uh? Being a guido helps here…

Hey, I prediced 44 W even in the Big Dog year and 43 W last year. Ok, this is also an evidence that I’m not that good at forecasting, but, again, see the half full part: I always believe in my team… 

So I imagine a Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith/Steven Hunter and Sam Dalembert starting line up, with Korver, Carney, Hunter/Ja. Smith, Byars and Louis Williams (no Willie Green please) coming off the bench.

Some posters on the philly.com Sixers board say that even this Herbert Hill guy might be a steal, but I am not buying it, maybe I am just not optimistic enough to believe it, LOL.

Anyway, right now I see this group perhaps missing the playoffs also next year  – say: 38-41 W in a stronger Sadlantic division - but making some real noise in two if they can gel and grew together.

I have the 2004 Pistons in my mind, a team I really LIKED, and I think we can look at that model and try that way to reach the success: no superstar(s) but a core of talented guys more or less at the same, high, level that play as a team, that play defense, with a deep bench. We are 3 yrs (and a good coach?) away from that, I hope. Now if only a Jerry Sloan would move to Philly…

The key if course are the coach and the two new young studs – I assume that Iggy and Dalembert will go on improving, while Miller, Korver & co will have their usual efficiency.

I’ve seen some Thaddeus Young clips, I’ve read some reports and I can’t wait to see him play a whole game. I am curious to have a 19 y/o lefty SF that can shoot and post up (Tayshaun Prince?) and I just hope he develops all of his potential. Together with Iggy he can be a beast, for sure the 2007-2008 Sixers would be fun to watch.

Jason Smith is probably not ready to be a starter in the League but I’ve heard he has real talent. So the question is: is it better to put him immediately in the arena – in Italy we say: “thow the baby in the water so he will learn swimming”- to bang with the league’s best big men, or get an experienced PF (Joe Smith, that I would like to keep, or similar type of player) and patiently let him grow in a back up spot? I would tend to go with option #2.

Actually there’s another option, which is the most likely: leave Hunter AND Dalembert as starters, like we did in the second part of last season, and have J Smith (+ Shav, Hill etc) ready to come help them.

Honestly I am not a big fan of the two seven footers solution, mainly because Hunter is a poor rebounder and we have few low post scoring, but numbers told us that it worked.

Sixers minicamp just started and Rodney Carney, at 23 y/o is the veteran. The Mutombo, Snow, Mc Kie era seems definitely over.

Let me make this clear immediately: I AM NOT – I repeat, I AM NOT – a college basketball expert. I don’t follow NCAA. Ok?

I don’t know shlt about college players except when I (occasionally) watch some game. It happened like 3-4 times this year, so that you know it.

That’s why I won’t break down Sixers’ draft picks, first because in my blogroll you have dozens of sites that do it remarkably, second because I wouldn’t be credible. And as a Sixers blogger I want to be credible.

Let’s stick to FACTS and things that are SURE. 

Fact #1 is this: “The draft concluded with the Sixers eventually acquiring Georgia Tech forward Thaddeus Young (in the picture), Colorado State 7-footer Jason Smith, Vanderbilt forward Derrick Byars and Providence forward/center Herbert Hill“.

All I read about these guys is: Young could be a terrific player but CAN NOT play PF, Jason Smith is a good big man with serious upside (…) but an average rebounder, Byars is a SG/SF, Hill doesn’t count, I guess…

Fact #2 is: Sixers desperately needed (well, actually need) a REBOUNDING PF. They didn’t get any player to solve this problem, that to me was THE priority.

Fact #3 is: we didnt’ manage to trade up, even if we had a lot of assets to do so, such as 4 picks a really good playmaker like Andre Miller + some role players that could be used, Carney, Hunter, Green etc. Billy King’s explaination for failing to trade up is this. Some significant excerpts:

“We did everything we [could] to move up to get a big [man] – it didn’t work out”

“We offered some great situations; other teams chose not to [accept] them”

“We’re not done. This is not the end product that we’re going to start the season with.”

This is always our resident idiot GM speaking. To me, working in the P.R. business for the last fifteen years, these sentences can be translated into:

1) I didn’t do my job

2) Other teams’ GMs did it

3) I am not satisfied with what I ended up with

This REGUARDLESS of the value of the new players, I repeat. They might turn out to be great, I do hope so, but I’m talking about another story. The story of a GM who doesn’t have a plan (unless you considering that saving his own job is a plan), doesn’t have a long term view, that at the end of the day is MEDIOCRE. Billy King, not that we didn’t know before, but you suck.

Do these picks put us in the playoffs mix again? I am not sure… Celtics and Knicks improved a lot last night (short term fixes, anyway, like it’s well explained by Yahoo’s Wojnarowski, so I am not impressed with their moves, just to be clear…).

Do these picks help us in the long term? Difficult to say, but if I have to answer now I would say NO.

We still miss a very important piece to be competetive – in the weak Eastern conference, btw - a very good PF in a league that was already CROWDED of terrific PFs and since last night even more, with Durant, Horford, Brandan Wright, Noah (a Sixers target, as King confirmed), Hawes and Yi coming in…

The Sixers team coming out of last night’s draft would still be KILLED under the boards on a daily basis. I think we will resign Joe Smith, actually we should do it, we need his toughness and some veteran leadership. I am ok with Joe staying here for a couple of years, but at a reasonable price (which is always a risky expression when your GM is Billy King).

The last thing I would like to add is that Portland (2009 NBA champs?) ended up with Oden, Frye, Francis (…) and Rudy Fernandez after finishing the season with 3 (THREE !!) losses more than us.

Now how do now sound our last regular season wins @ Detroit, @ Toronto, vs Indiana? Glorious? or DETRIMENTAL AND STUPID?

Ok enough being negative, let’s chill out and wait some time for a deeper analysis. This sounds more like a instinctive vent, I realize it now. Sorry.

Maybe it’s the two hours I slept to follow the draft live before going to work… Sixers madness anyone?